Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.143947 0.170309 0.201281 0.240658 0.289820 0.349746 4.291994e-01
2025-06-29 0.102383 0.131005 0.168085 0.220546 0.294348 0.396811 5.541176e-01
2025-07-06 0.067302 0.090981 0.123868 0.174207 0.251779 0.371193 5.783110e-01
2025-07-13 0.053586 0.076601 0.110950 0.168108 0.265434 0.433923 7.718540e-01
2025-07-20 0.044915 0.067681 0.104077 0.169841 0.293804 0.536854 1.110269e+00
2025-07-27 0.038685 0.061250 0.099769 0.175214 0.332857 0.685392 1.683063e+00
2025-08-03 0.033288 0.055090 0.094585 0.177978 0.370398 0.861534 2.550560e+00
2025-08-10 0.028088 0.048234 0.086607 0.173079 0.391073 1.020330 3.646648e+00
2025-08-17 0.023543 0.041708 0.077821 0.163938 0.398922 1.159382 5.004727e+00
2025-08-24 0.020611 0.037722 0.073312 0.163516 0.432187 1.424052 7.782959e+00
2025-08-31 0.018243 0.034419 0.069531 0.163905 0.470493 1.767626 1.262778e+01
2025-09-07 0.016345 0.031743 0.066564 0.165698 0.517194 2.234211 2.181721e+01
2025-09-14 0.014593 0.029204 0.063692 0.168098 0.575708 2.927055 4.296211e+01
2025-09-21 0.012716 0.026048 0.058590 0.162065 0.599305 3.511270 7.690040e+01
2025-09-28 0.010248 0.021139 0.047996 0.134680 0.510070 3.127667 7.872004e+01
2025-10-05 0.009223 0.019467 0.045587 0.134213 0.551370 3.969300 1.712925e+02
2025-10-12 0.008520 0.018445 0.044716 0.139058 0.628583 5.526474 5.350270e+02
2025-10-19 0.007968 0.017700 0.044463 0.146441 0.734280 8.143036 2.681752e+03
2025-10-26 0.007404 0.016826 0.043638 0.151456 0.837541 11.757676 2.371039e+04
2025-11-02 0.006747 0.015597 0.041440 0.149756 0.895070 15.347252 4.077928e+05
2025-11-09 0.006086 0.014254 0.038590 0.143958 0.915906 18.614587 7.493584e+07
2025-11-16 0.005644 0.013449 0.037316 0.145195 1.005677 26.128541 NaN
2025-11-23 0.005260 0.012741 0.036211 0.146900 1.109436 37.739334 NaN